Coronavirus-ravaged Wisconsin sweats Trump rallies

Deaths related to Covid-19 are spiking. The rate of infections has shot into double-digits. Hospitals are sounding the alarm on capacity issues.

In spite of it all, Donald Trump is still planning to travel to Wisconsin for two rallies this weekend, transforming this key swing state into the white-hot center of the national political debate over the coronavirus pandemic.

Coronavirus politics have already upended this deeply polarized state. State Republicans have been at war with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers over the safety measures he has imposed. Democratic mayors of the two cities that Trump planned to visit — both already designated as red zones by the White House Coronavirus task force — urged the president not to come, fearful of the prospect of super-spreader events. The state‘s April primary, the subject of bitter partisan fighting and litigation, drew national attention for the headscratching decision to conduct an in-person election during the height of a deadly pandemic.

Now, with 33 days until the election, Wisconsin is in a full-blown crisis. Deaths rose by 53 percent over the last two weeks, drawing renewed attention to one of Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities in a state he won by fewer than 23,000 votes in 2016.

“It’s really like they’re operating in a separate reality,” Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler said. “As much as [Trump is] trying to change the subject, the crisis has become an encapsulation of everything that’s wrong with his presidency and it’s affecting people all over the state.”

For months, the partisan fighting has muddled the messaging on what safety measures residents should take part in — or given a green light to those who don’t want to follow the rules, said Melissa Baldauff, a Democratic strategist and former Evers aide.

“You have businesses flaunting that they’re not enforcing the masks. You’ve had sheriffs saying they’re not going to enforce it,” Baldauff said.

A repeal of Evers’ ‘Safer at Home‘ order, which required residents to stay home and closed non-essential businesses, pushed forward by the GOP-controlled legislature, means officials can no longer limit the size of gatherings. Separately, a conservative group has filed a lawsuit attempting to block the governor’s mask order.

Republicans accuse Democrats of going overboard with some of their measures. If there’s a lack of compliance, they say, it’s likely due to hypocritical moves by officials who want to ban large gatherings but then remain silent or even applaud large groups of protesters.

They point to ideological objections to Evers’ restrictions as well: the party believes decisions such as wearing masks and whether to shelter at home should be up to individuals and not mandated by the government.

“For the safety of the community, we need to make sure we’re trying to be careful, but we don’t think that means go in your house, or if I can be snarky, we don’t feel we have to be like Joe Biden and hide in our basement forever,” state Republican Party chair Andrew Hitt said. “We feel like we need to understand and work towards functioning again in this country and not just running and hiding from this virus and this pandemic.”

Nothing speaks more plainly to the polarized nature of the debate than Trump‘s decision to hold a pair of rallies in Wisconsin after the White House designated it as a red zone, a consequence of having the third-highest positivity rate of any state in the country.

“The White House put out a letter calling Wisconsin the third-worst in the country. I don’t quite understand how that squares with holding a rally,” says Brandon Scholz, a Wisconsin-based Republican strategist. “But there are 33 days to the election and you have to campaign. I guess, bring in the kitchen sink when you land the plane.”

Trump was originally slated to hold a Saturday rally in LaCrosse, a swing area rich with voters Trump needs to win over in a state where Joe Biden leads in polls by an average of 5 percentage points. The Trump campaign moved the rally to Janesville after facing a lease issue, according to a spokesperson who said the relocation was “not Covid related.”

Trump officials say they will take precautions to avoid spreading the virus at rallies where attendees are expected to be in close contact.

“Americans are enthusiastic for President Trump’s reelection, and they want to and have a right to gather under the First Amendment to hear from the President of the United States,” deputy national press secretary Courtney Parella said in a statement. “For the President’s outdoor events in Wisconsin, like his other campaign events, everyone attending will receive a temperature check, be provided a mask they are encouraged to wear and have access to plenty of hand sanitizer.”

The campaign is still holding a second rally in Green Bay, one of the White House-designated coronavirus hot spots, over the objections of the town’s mayor.

“The president of the United States is always welcome in our community, but he needs to honor the guidelines offered by our local health officials,” Green Bay Mayor Eric Genrich, a Democrat, told POLITICO. “A campaign rally could be a super-spreader event. He can’t want that and we can’t bear it.”

Genrich wrote an open letter to Trump as far back as June asking for the president to refrain from visiting.

“Unfortunately, I could simply change the date and update the Covid-19 death toll,” he said of the state's circumstances today.

Outagamie County Executive Thomas Nelson, a Democrat whose county is among the hardest hit in the state, said Trump is only emphasizing his leadership shortcomings on Covid by visiting Wisconsin now.

“My county is a swing county in a swing state and we’re one the hottest spots in the country,” Nelson said. "He ought to cancel his trip. But if he comes, he should visit one of our packed hospitals to see what he has done to our country."

To Nelson’s point: hospitals are becoming so overwhelmed, state officials recently warned they might soon need to open a field hospital on the state fairgrounds to take in the overflow.

Trump earlier this week boasted at the first presidential debate about having 25,000 to 35,000 people show up at his rallies. Moderator Chris Wallace asked the president if he was worried about spreading the disease with his rallies.

“So far, we've had no problem. It's outside, according to the experts, it's a big difference. We do them outside. We have tremendous crowds as you see, on 24 hours notice,” he said. “We've had no negative effect.”

Trump’s outdoor rally in Mosinee, Wis.. last month attracted thousands of people. Even as the Covid-19 spread was accelerating in the state at the time, most of those attending were not wearing masks.

Biden has also visited Wisconsin, including in Manitowoc last week. But the former vice president’s campaign has been fastidious about following strict Covid-19 guidelines, including imposing limits on the number of attendees, and requiring social distancing and mask-wearing at events.

Hitt said Republican elected officials who oppose the mask order are simply representing the will of their constituencies.

“There’s a pretty substantial differentiation on the mask views depending on where you’re at in this state. If you’re in Madison or Milwaukee, everybody is wearing them. I watch the change of opinion every day I travel. I stop at a gas station in Appleton and most people are wearing masks but not everybody. I go further west or further north and there’s not a single mask,” Hitt said.

“I think the public opinion is very different depending on where you are. Like a lot of things, Republicans feel there should be more personal responsibility, as opposed to the governor mandating it.”

While mask-wearing and government closures have been politicized nationally, polls suggested broad support for safety measures in Wisconsin in the early stages of the pandemic. In March, “more than 8-in-10 Republicans and Independents, along with 95 percent of Democrats, supported the state’s mandatory social distancing measures,” according to the Marquette Law School poll.

Evers saw a steady rise in his popularity after he issued the ‘Safer at Home‘ order, receiving high marks in polls for his handling of Covid over several months, peaking at 65 percent in March. While his numbers dropped after the riots in Kenosha, his approval stands at 51 percent.

Earlier this week, Evers appeared with health officials to sound the alarm that residents needed to take the virus more seriously, and get back to basics on safety measures. Initially, state officials saw a spike when schools and universities reopened. But the virus, they say, is now afflicting older age groups and has spread to less populated parts of the state.

“Folks it isn’t safe, this virus is real and it’s devastating our communities and will continue to do so until we all get on the same team,” Evers said earlier this week. “I cannot stress this enough, no party, no gathering, no bar is worth it.”

Evers said that Trump should either not come this weekend, or insist his supporters wear masks.

“He could wear one, too,” Evers said. “Those are the two things he could do to make sure it doesn’t become a super-spreader event.”

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Trump aide Hope Hicks, who traveled on Air Force One this week, tests positive for coronavirus

Hope Hicks, one of President Donald Trump’s closest aides, has tested positive for the coronavirus.

Hicks, who serves as counselor to the president and traveled with him to a Wednesday rally, tested positive Thursday, according to an administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private health information. She is the closest aide to Trump to test positive so far.

In a statement, White House spokesman Judd Deere said, “The President takes the health and safety of himself and everyone who works in support of him and the American people very seriously.”

“White House Operations collaborates with the Physician to the President and the White House Military Office to ensure all plans and procedures incorporate current CDC guidance and best practices for limiting COVID-19 exposure to the greatest extent possible both on complex and when the President is traveling,” Deere said.

Hicks traveled with the president multiple times this week, including aboard Marine One, the presidential helicopter, for a Minnesota rally Wednesday, and aboard Air Force One to Tuesday night’s first presidential debate.

Hicks, one of the president’s most trusted aides, previously served as White House communications director and rejoined the administration this year ahead of the election. The story was first reported by Bloomberg News.

Multiple White House staffers have tested positive for the virus, including Katie Miller, Vice President Mike Pence’s press secretary, as well as one of the president’s personal valets.

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Hochul's back as New York's campaign warrior

ALBANY — Kathy Hochul is not exactly a social media influencer, but she can work her angles with the best of today’s TikTok and Instagram stars.

After at least 80 political events over Zoom in recent months, New York’s 62-year-old lieutenant governor knows exactly how high to stack books under her iPad to get the image she wants on screen. And she has passed along this newly vital skill to the dozens of candidates she’s supporting. She does, however, have a bone to pick with Apple about camera placement on the left side of the device.

“To me, that seems to be a design flaw,” Hochul said during an interview at a nearly empty downtown Albany restaurant last week, during a day that began in Buffalo and would end in Syracuse. “I'm always having to position the books so I'm not looking the wrong way. But I tell women this: make sure you look good on the Zoom. If someone's taking a picture, they might use it on some piece of literature. You don't know.”

Hochul was briefly sidelined from her breakneck travel schedule during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in New York, but she has now resumed a version of it — zipping around the state for economic development events and small business (re) openings. She’s maintained a newfound radio presence, conducting upwards of 400 media interviews since the start of the pandemic.

In recent months, a separate but equally loaded campaign schedule shows up alongside her daily events, though she is not running for anything in 2020. As her boss, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, remains close to home and focused on public health issues, the nation’s longest serving female lieutenant governor is the highest elected official rallying New York’s Democrats for November's elections.

State Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said that’s part of the pair’s yin and yang, especially as Cuomo’s energy remains focused on maintaining control over the virus that ravaged the state earlier this spring and may yet do so again.

“The governor wants this,” Jacobs said. “He is very much about winning these down ballot races — while he has to take care of the matters of the government right now, he certainly wants Kathy Hochul out there flying the flag.”

Tom Perez, chair of the Democratic National Committee, described Hochul as a "force of nature," adding that "she has been essential to building a deep bench of strong Democratic leaders in New York State and across the country."

Jacobs said the lieutenant governor "understands the need to do the politics, not just when she’s up for reelection. You see a lot of politicians out and about when their name is on the ballot. She is out and about when anyone’s name is on the ballot, as long as there’s a ‘D’ after it.”

Take, for example, September 17, when she started the day calling into a KISS 98.5FM Buffalo Radio, then spoke at a mental health addictions clinic opening at noon and spent her evening trying to fire up five separate Democratic clubs virtually from 7 p.m. to 8:05 p.m.

“I try to get them excited and to tell them that, despite the fact you can't go knocking on doors, or be at a rally, you can all reach out to people,” Hochul said. “And I also want to lay a little ‘mom guilt’ on everybody. Do you really want to wake up after the election, and not have Joe Biden as your winner? So I lay it on real hard.”

She has encouraged Democrats in New York City, where the party is assured of its usual domination on election day, to make calls on behalf of candidates upstate, on Long Island ... or in, say, the battleground state of Michigan. She recently asked her niece, a freshman at Penn State, to join the cause. "As long as you’re sitting there in a room, sweetheart" she said, "would you make a few calls for Joe Biden?"

Cuomo has formally endorsed three candidates, all incumbent Democratic state senators from Long Island, in the general election. Hochul has endorsed 33 candidates, including 12 congressional candidates, more than a dozen in the state Legislature, and a handful of other local and national candidates.

Hochul and her aides make endorsement decisions based on whether she has the time to actually show up for on their behalf, rather than simply put out a news release, she said. She also works closely with Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins to find out where her presence can be most helpful.

Samra Brouk, who is attempting to be the first Black woman to win an open state Senate seat in Rochester, said the first thing she noticed about Hochul, a Buffalo native, was that “she is such an upstate New Yorker.”

“You know that you're dealing with a figurative giant, even though she’s a small lady,” Brouk said. “You're dealing with this political giant, but she's just down to earth and down to business, which I really appreciate, because we got to talk through a lot of stuff.”

Democrats are hoping to flip the Rochester seat, from which incumbent Republican Richard Funke is retiring. Hochul headlined an event for Brouk on Sept. 10.

“A lot of the younger women entering politics right now, we among ourselves talk a lot about [the fact that] we might have to bang open the door or storm the door open, because it's never been open for us before,” Brouk said. “But we're committed to leaving it open for the next generation of women. And so I think when you're able to identify women who come before you, who’ve already tried to open that door, and just wedge it a little bit wider to get more of us in, it means everything.”

Hochul’s also ready for almost anything, said state Sen. Anna Kaplan of Nassau County, with whom Hochul is hosting a virtual cocktail party on Wednesday night in support of Kaplan’s reelection. Participants will receive cocktail recipes to make at home because, as Kaplan put it, “everybody’s a little bit Zoomed out.”

"When I called her up and I asked her for help, she said ‘Absolutely let’s do it.' So she does not shy away," Kaplan said. "And I'm not a drinker but I thought it might be a fun thing for the audience, and for people to come and sort of make it fun and light.”

(The drinks themselves might not be as light: The “Kaplan Cosmo” calls for vodka, white cranberry juice, Aperol, Triple Sec and lime juice, and “Hochul’s Harvest Highball” is a version of Long Island Iced Tea with Triple Sec, white rum, gin, vodka, apple cider, and lemon lime soda.)

Kaplan got to know Hochul while serving as a North Hempstead Town Councilmember, when the lieutenant governor called to see how she could be helpful in workforce and small business development. Kaplan said Hochul treats local campaigns and races with the same intensity as national ones. And, to be sure, Hochul has had a glimpse of the national stage from several angles.

She represented New York Democrats during the national roll call vote during last month's virtual convention. During that week she also hosted an online panel with colleagues from Illinois and Nevada, was slammed by Sean Hannity of Fox News after she tweeted that President Donald Trump should take back his pardon of Susan B. Anthony, and spoke at a Women's Leadership Breakfast sponsored by the State Democratic Committee. She headlined New York for Biden’s September Unity Rally.

Hochul also is serving as chair of the newly organized Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which has jumped from 14 to 24 members in the past two years. She spent a long evening recently on a call with Yvonne Lewis Holley, who is looking to pick up the lieutenant governor spot in North Carolina, and in July she hosted a fundraiser for Montana Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney’s gubernatorial run.

She’s trying to grow a class of seconds-in-command who aren’t treating the role as the twilight of their careers, said Roshan Patel, the group’s executive director and former finance director of the Democratic Governors Association. They are younger — Wisconsin’s Mandela Barnes is 33 and Michigan's Garlin Gilchrist is 38 — and some are holding statewide office for the first time, he said.

Hochul has been adamant about fundraising and recruiting, but has also transformed the organization into a political network. In March, as New York was staring down the worst of the pandemic, Hochul organized biweekly calls among her Democratic counterparts in the group.

“She took what is a political organization — we care about the scoreboard and how much money we can raise — and essentially turned it into a war room for the states around the country to handle Covid,” he said.

One of the reasons the DLGA organized in 2018 was to keep up with Republican counterparts who were using the lieutenant governor position to vault into higher office — especially after the Trump administration began to take shape in 2016. The current class of lieutenant governors would anticipate a similar shift if there's a new White House occupant in 2021. If Joe Biden were to win, he would recruit Democratic governors who have been on the front lines of the Covid response, as well as those with experience in both emergency preparedness and balancing difficult budgets, Patel predicted.

Many have pointed out that description fits New York’s governor like a glove, and remains a logical path for Cuomo, a longtime Biden ally, despite his insistence that he won’t abandon his current role.

“A Biden administration would be smart to pluck some governors from the states and take that expertise to the administration,” Patel said. “What happens with that is these lieutenant governors all of the sudden become governor, and if they haven't been building toward that, or at least, doing the things that prepare you for other offices, they wouldn't be prepared and that’s what Lt. Gov. Hochul and the organization has been able to do: make sure our LG’s are prepared for whatever may happen down the road.”

Hochul has always been discreet about her future plans, but she’s certainly not looking toward retirement. She can’t even imagine sitting down long enough to write a book, like some of her predecessors, she says.

“I'm going to be a Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a Louise Slaughter,” Hochul said. “I'm going to be late 80s when I say goodbye to this business and only because ‘somebody’ comes knocking.”

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Top GOP super PAC jumps into red-hot South Carolina race

Senate Republicans’ top super PAC broadened the Senate map Thursday, going further on defense — and offense — with less than five weeks to go until Election Day.

Senate Leadership Fund, which is run by allies of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, added a new $9 million ad buy in Michigan, where Republican John James is attempting to unseat Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in one of just two offensive opportunities on the Senate map for the GOP.

But on the same day, the super PAC announced a $10 million ad blitz in South Carolina, a deep red state where Democrat Jaime Harrison is aiming to take down GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham in the most expensive election in the state’s history. The super PAC is also set to spend an additional $7.2 million in Kansas starting next week and running through Election Day.

Michigan has always been part of the Senate map: It’s only one of two states Trump won in 2016 where Democratic senators are up for reelection. But the emergence of South Carolina as a true expensive battleground — and perhaps a money pit for both parties — along with Kansas shows how Democrats have expanded their paths to wresting away Republicans’ 53-47 majority.

Heavy on defense

South Carolina is the latest addition to the states where Republicans are spending to try to protect endangered incumbent senators. The party has spent tens of millions in key battlegrounds like Arizona, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, all of which have been seen as highly competitive the moment the election cycle began. But SLF or affiliated organizations have also spent money in Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky and Montana, all red-leaning states where investments have helped provide a backstop against high Democratic fundraising with polling showing competitive contests.

The additional $7.2 million buy in Kansas is on top of the more than $4 million they spent following Rep. Roger Marshall's GOP primary victory. Marshall now faces Democrat Barbara Bollier.

Democrats have expanded the Senate map by fielding candidates who raise massive sums from small-dollar donors, giving them a spending edge over GOP campaigns in essentially every race on the map.

The gap has been starkest in South Carolina. Harrison is likely to obliterate fundraising records: He raised $1 million in back-to-back days last month — and that was before Democrats’ fundraising increased nationally upon news Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away. Democrats expect his third-quarter fundraising total to be among the highest ever, especially running against Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Harrison has spent $40 million on ads so far, compared to just $15 million for Graham, according to data from Advertising Analytics. Harrison is set to spend $12 million between now and Election Day, compared to $4.4 million for Graham, though both campaigns will almost certainly add more to those totals.

Another super PAC that supports Graham has $3 million booked from now and Election Day, but Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC is doubling that with $6.5 million. All that amounts to Graham getting absolutely swamped on the airwaves by a worse margin than just about any other candidate in the country.

With polling showing the race deadlocked, that deficit would spell major trouble for Graham without the outside help.

“The far-left money spigot has been turned on for liberal lobbyist Jamie Harrison, and now he’s flooding South Carolina with his liberal donors’ funds,” SLF president Steven Law said in a statement announcing the investment, calling it a “insurance policy” for Republicans.

Guy King, a spokesman for Harrison, responded by alluding to Graham recently asking for new campaign donations during Fox News appearances.

“After weeks of desperately begging for cash, Sen. Graham and his allies in Washington are clearly hitting the panic button," King said.

The Michigan opportunity

Despite a map that is tilted heavily against the party, Republicans continue to push their offensive opportunities to pad their contested majority.

By far, Republicans’ best opportunity to flip a seat is Alabama, where Tommy Tubervile is seen as the favorite against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Neither party’s outside groups have invested much in this state, despite Jones’ massive financial advantage against Tuberville, a former football coach who dispatched former Sen. Jeff Sessions in the primary.

But Michigan represents the only other state where Republicans have invested on offense, and a competitive race here unlocks the possibility of an additional bulwark against Democrats taking over the chamber. James, who lost the 2018 Senate race, has proven to be one of his party’s best fundraisers and has outraised Peters in most quarters over the past two years.

Yet Peters has led in every recent public poll — including a 5-point lead in the most recent survey, from NBC News/Marist — and Democrats as a party have outspent Republicans. Trump is also trailing Biden in this state, which is likely the most challenging of the trio of Great Lakes states he won in 2016 for him to mount a comeback. James would likely need to outpace Trump by a few percentage points to win.

Peters has spent $15 million compared to $11.5 million for James so far this year, according to Advertising Analytics, and the Democrats’ campaign also currently has a $2 million advantage between now and Election Day. Meanwhile, Senate Majority PAC has outspent GOP groups so far.

The influx from SLF can also be seen as an insurance policy for James in the event that the Trump campaign gives up on Michigan altogether. According to an NBC News analysis published Thursday, Biden has already outspent Trump on TV there since Labor Day, $12 million to $3.7 million.

What to watch next

It’s the point in the election calendar when ad buys shift as both parties assess their best opportunities and greatest needs. Where each party is invested reflects their view of the most competitive states and their best bet on a majority.

In 2016, the map narrowed when Democrats were forced to pull money out of races in Ohio and Florida early in the fall. In 2018, the map narrowed substantially when Republicans decided not to invest in unseating four Midwestern Democratic incumbents.

SLF’s moves on Thursday suggest it still sees a pathway to winning in Michigan — but, more concerning, the major buy in South Carolina is a sign of trouble in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race since 1998. If you told Republicans at the start of the election cycle that they’d be sinking seven figures into South Carolina in October, they probably wouldn’t believe it — and they’d know their backs would be against the wall.

Still, neither party has fully cut off a candidate in which it was already spending money. Democrats have nothing invested in Alabama, where Jones is a heavy underdog, but he has a 8-to-1 spending edge over Tuberville’s campaign through Election Day. Republicans’ smallest remaining buys now are in Alaska and Colorado, where they have $3.5 million to boost Sen. Cory Gardner, perhaps their most vulnerable incumbent — roughly equal to what Senate Majority PAC, the Democratic group, is spending there.

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A TV ad tidal wave in Florida: Nearly $250M and counting

TALLAHASSEE — Florida’s record-breaking campaign season continues to scale stunning new heights, with the presidential campaigns and their allies preparing to spend at least a quarter of a billion dollars on television ad time between now and Nov. 3.

The ad barrage is a reminder of Florida's outsized role in the presidential election. President Donald Trump, who narrowly won the state in 2016, is unlikely to win a second term in the White House if he loses his adopted home state.

The jaw-dropping ad spending, which is $100 million more than what was spent four years ago in the battleground state, raises questions about the effectiveness of wall-to-wall television ads, especially when the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds.

“The notion of a persuadable voter at this point is really hard to believe,” said Ryan Tyson, a Florida-based Republican pollster who said his recent surveys have shown that more than 90 percent of voters have decided who they will choose for president.

An analysis by Advertising Analytics conducted at POLITICO‘s request showed that as of this week, Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and their allies, have purchased or plan to spend $243 million. When radio and digital advertising is included, the total jumps to $264 million.

Florida is the undisputed leader in television advertising across the nation. Pennsylvania is second with $156.5 million in buys so far, and North Carolina is third with nearly $107 million.

The Florida total doesn’t reflect the full impact of billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s pledge to spend $100 million in the Sunshine State to help defeat Trump. So far, Bloomberg’s main PAC has reserved just shy of $30 million in air time.

But Bloomberg has funneled money to other PACS spending money in Florida with new ad buys being announced nearly every day. Earlier this week, Priorities USA and BlackPAC said they were launching a $3.4 million ad campaign aimed at Black voters that was funded by Bloomberg.

There are ads running in English and Spanish statewide, addressing an array of topics that include the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, law and order, socialism, Israel, health care, and Trump’s appointment of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based Democratic strategist who produced ads for President Barack Obama in 2012, wonders if the messages are getting through.

“If we are not there already, we are quickly approaching the point of diminishing returns,” Amandi said. “It all becomes white noise. It all starts to blur for the voters and they begin proactively tuning it out.”

Ads can be used to motivate base voters, but one political consultant privately said the tsunami of ads reflects a “CYA” attitude among strategists who fear getting blamed if they don’t match their opponents‘ spending.

According to Advertising Analytics, the Biden campaign has spent or reserved $77 million in airtime, compared to Trump’s $69 million.

The two campaigns have aimed most of their firepower at media markets in Orlando, with $40.2 million in spending, and Tampa, with $36.2 million. The two markets collectively include an 18-county region known as the I-4 corridor, an area that’s home to a large number of swing voters that is targeted every election cycle.

The Biden and Trump campaigns have spent nearly $33 million combined in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale media market.

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