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Sunday, October 4, 2020

Pope: Market capitalism has failed in pandemic, needs reform


ROME — Pope Francis says the coronavirus pandemic has proven that the “magic theories” of market capitalism have failed and that the world needs a new type of politics that promotes dialogue and solidarity and rejects war at all costs.

Francis on Sunday laid out his vision for a post-COVID world by uniting the core elements of his social teachings into a new encyclical, “Fratelli Tutti” (Brothers All), which was released on the feast day of his namesake, the peace-loving St. Francis of Assisi.

The document draws its inspiration from the teachings of St. Francis and the pope’s previous preaching on the injustices of the global economy and its destruction of the planet and pairs them with his call for greater human solidarity to address today’s problems.

In the encyclical, Francis rejected even the Catholic Church’s own doctrine justifying war as a means of legitimate defense, saying it had been too broadly applied over the centuries and was no longer viable.

“It is very difficult nowadays to invoke the rational criteria elaborated in earlier centuries to speak of the possibility of a ‘just war,’” Francis wrote in the most controversial new element of the encyclical.

Francis had started writing the encyclical, the third of his pontificate, before the coronavirus struck and upended everything from the global economy to everyday life. He said the pandemic, however, had confirmed his belief that current political and economic institutions must be reformed to address the legitimate needs of the people most harmed by the coronavirus.

“Aside from the differing ways that various countries responded to the crisis, their inability to work together became quite evident,” Francis wrote. “Anyone who thinks that the only lesson to be learned was the need to improve what we were already doing, or to refine existing systems and regulations, is denying reality.”

He cited the grave loss of millions of jobs as a result of the virus as evidence of the need for politicians to listen to popular movements, unions and marginalized groups and to craft more just social and economic policies.

“The fragility of world systems in the face of the pandemic has demonstrated that not everything can be resolved by market freedom,” he wrote. “It is imperative to have a proactive economic policy directed at ‘promoting an economy that favours productive diversity and business creativity’ and makes it possible for jobs to be created, and not cut.”

He denounced populist politics that seek to demonize and isolate, and called for a “culture of encounter” that promotes dialogue, solidarity and a sincere effort at working for the common good.

As an outgrowth of that, Francis repeated his criticism of the “perverse” global economic system, which he said consistently keeps the poor on the margins while enriching the few. Francis rejected the concept of an absolute right to property for individuals, stressing instead the “social purpose” and common good that must come from sharing the Earth’s resources.

Francis once again rejected “trickle-down” economic theory as he did in the first major mission statement of his papacy, the 2013 Evangelii Gaudium, (The Joy of the Gospel), saying it simply doesn’t achieve what it claims.

“Neo-liberalism simply reproduces itself by resorting to magic theories of ‘spillover’ or ‘trickle’ — without using the name — as the only solution to societal problems,” he wrote. “There is little appreciation of the fact that the alleged ‘spillover’ does not resolve the inequality that gives rise to new forms of violence threatening the fabric of society.”

Much of the new encyclical repeats Francis’ well-known preaching about the need to welcome and value migrants and his rejection of the nationalistic, isolationist policies of many of today’s political leaders.

He dedicated an entire chapter to the parable of the Good Samaritan, saying its lesson of charity, kindness and looking out for strangers was “the basic decision we need to make in order to rebuild our wounded world.”



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4 winners and 2 losers from Saturday Night Live’s season premiere

Saturday Night Live - Season 46 Will Heath/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

Jim Carrey debuted as Joe Biden, Alec Baldwin is (still) over playing Trump, Chris Rock nailed it, and we hope everyone stays healthy.

Saturday Night Live made the bold decision to return to studio 8H this fall, following a truncated season that saw the cast sequestered in their individual homes. Those episodes provided some of the freshest sketches SNL has aired in years, indulging its performers’ more absurd, even experimental comedic talents.

Going back to the studio didn’t necessarily mean going back to “normal” for SNL, however: There’s still the issue of Covid-19, its impact on film production, and its continued toll on the society that SNL comments on. Masks are commonplace; social distancing is the norm; more than 1 million people worldwide have died. As of this Friday, right before the season premiere, even President Donald Trump has contracted the illness.

Not only did the season premiere suggest that the cast and crew took an abundance of caution in putting on a show, but it also elegantly commented on or winked at the heaps of news events that have dominated the United States over the past month. Everyone from the onstage band members to the studio audience (composed of first responders) wore masks as did the cast at the end of the show. And non-Covid-related events, like the mid-September death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, received heartfelt, considerate shoutouts. (Kate McKinnon ostensibly retired her RBG impression with a brief appearance at the end of Weekend Update, followed by a “rest in power” title card.)

All of this is to say that the show felt satisfyingly normal in the face of abnormality. SNL is an adaptable creature, even if it is not always a deeply considered one (see: the episode’s first sketch, which was just a bunch of jokes about silly- and raunchy-sounding names like Edith Puthie and Irma Gerd). The season premiere had its good and its bad, but its successes — to our pleasant surprise — mostly outweighed any missteps.

Winner: Jim Carrey as Joe Biden

Saturday Night Live has had a few different cast members play Joe Biden in the past, but none has quite stuck. Biden’s persona is not as immediately defined as Barack Obama’s or Donald Trump’s, which may be why he’s been a bit of a challenge. Instead of asking someone like Jason Sudeikis to come back and reprise the role, SNL went with a much bigger name to take a stab at a Biden impression: Jim Carrey.

This may seem like an odd choice to some viewers, considering that Carrey is both one of Hollywood’s greatest hams and Canadian. But Carrey walked on stage all lanky and finger-guns ablaze, his teeth as shiny as the real Biden’s. He exuded the same kind of intrinsic chill that Biden often does, the sense of coolness that was a large part of his persona during his vice-presidential years.

The show’s cold open pitted Alec Baldwin’s Trump against Carrey’s Biden in a “replay” of the chaotic presidential debate that aired this past week. But where Carrey truly shined was toward the end of the sketch, when his Biden pressed “pause” on Trump and really took the time to speak his mind. “This November, please get on the Biden train, which is literally a commuter train to Delaware,” said a calm Carrey, a frozen Baldwin-Trump beside him. “And we can all make America not actively on fire again.” —Allegra Frank

Loser: Alec Baldwin as Donald Trump

Spare at least half a thought for poor Alec Baldwin, who never in his wildest dreams thought he’d be stuck playing Donald Trump this long and who will forever be identified with a person he clearly loathes for many reasons. (Though he’s also definitely making bank and could have handed the role over to anyone in the cast by now, so only half a thought is necessary.) Baldwin’s Trump has at times verged on being more exhausting than Trump himself, and this season opener was no exception. Playing Trump at the first presidential debate, he had to shoehorn in a foreshadowing of the diagnosis to come just a day or two after the debate, and it just was not fun to watch.

His puckered visage remains recognizably Trumpian, and he’s certainly nailed the tone of voice, the air of entitled disdain, and the bronzer. (What was up with that wig, though? Is it getting whiter?) But there’s nothing about Baldwin’s Trump that gives any insight into the man or does much of anything interesting. At this point, he’s a stand-in, a foil for Jim Carrey’s Biden, sort of a charisma-free hand puppet that fills up space on the screen. I don’t think he thinks he’s doing anything else, to be fair. But nobody may hope harder for a Trump loss in November than Alec Baldwin right now. —Alissa Wilkinson

Winner: Chris Rock

I heaved a big ol’ sigh of relief when I remembered Chris Rock was hosting; if anyone wasn’t going to get pushed into doing a non-political monologue for the sake of “civility,” it’s him. And on the whole, he delivered. Rock’s hosting was tight, and he only appeared in a few sketches — not surprising, since a number of them were pre-taped — but he was exactly the face SNL needed to kick off the new season.

And his monologue was what the situation called for. He could have thrown up his hands and rattled off a “this week, amirite?”-style monologue. He could have just lobbed a bunch of grenades toward the president, who has not, shall we say, had a good week. He could have nodded to the news and then talked about the challenges of making a show under Covid-19 protocols.

But instead, Rock took the opportunity to talk, albeit briefly and vaguely, about the system being broken. “I think Joe Biden should be the last president ever,” he declared. “We need a whole new system.” He touched on term limits for Congress, voter suppression, and requiring presidential candidates to clear a higher bar than being over age 35 and born in the US. It wasn’t uncomfortable, but it was something, and he concluded by quoting James Baldwin: “Not everything that is faced can be changed. But nothing can be changed until it is faced.” —AW

Winner: Megan Thee Stallion

Megan Thee Stallion’s summer was a mixed bag. Sure, she had huge hits in her remix of “Savage” featuring BeyoncĂ© and “WAP” with Cardi B. But she also suffered gunshot wounds allegedly at the hands of another rapper, Tory Lanez. (Megan was only lightly injured, thankfully.)

Megan seemed like she’d moved beyond that ordeal during her SNL performances, however. She performed twice, and she also appeared in two separate sketches. One was a pre-taped song in which Pete Davidson, Chris Redd, and Kenan Thompson asked women what was under their masks — how do we know that they’re totally hot if everything from the nose bridge-down is covered? Megan appeared to reinforce that, well, some things are better left discovered in the bedroom. Later, she took part in a sketch about an NBA Draft for participation in the “bubble,” the training space the league has set up for several teams so that they may quarantine without losing practice time. Megan played a flirtatious basketball girlfriend with aplomb; the 25-year-old’s got several talents, it seems.

But where Megan really stood out was in her musical performances. Her first song was the “Savage” remix, using BeyoncĂ©’s vocals to allow Megan and her dancers to show off more choreo. Megan is an excellent stage presence, with slow and sexy moves demanding attention during this TikTok-favorite jam. And once our eyes were locked on her, she pivoted to show that her fabulously black-and-white inkblot set actually read “protect Black women” — which she then implored all viewers to do. Using this moment to promote the power of Black Lives Matter and speak out against violence toward Black women felt powerful and appropriate: SNL truly has a lot of catching up to do after a heavy summer, after all. —AF

Winner: Kenan Thompson

I love Kenan Thompson. He just makes me happy. The man is starting his 18th season on Saturday Night Live, and yet he still shows up and seems to bring his all, no matter how he may be feeling about the whole situation privately. For his many What Up With That sketches alone, which I watch whenever I’m having a particularly terrible day, he has my eternal gratitude.

He’s now the longest-running member of the cast, which means he is becoming an institution in his own right. And in the season premiere, the show paid him homage in the “Future Ghost” sketch, in which Mikey Day circa 2000 sees into his future (in 2020, he’s become Beck Bennett) and discovers that he’ll still be playing Tony Hawk in his mom’s basement. But the twist is that his mom has married Kenan Thompson, and he’s on a show called My Mom Married Kenan Thompson.

That’s it. That’s the joke. And somehow it’s a very funny punchline. Someday, Thompson will actually leave SNL, but for now, it’s really nice that he’s around. —AW

Loser: Donald Trump

We’ve come a long way from 2015, baby, when Donald Trump himself — then a presidential hopeful who’d only months earlier completed the 14th season of his reality show on the same TV network as SNLhosted the show. At the time, it was seen by many as a massive miscalculation on SNL’s part, a way of legitimizing someone who was not as much of a joke as the bigwigs at SNL presumably thought he was. Members of the cast have talked about it since then, both on and off the air. For many, it will forever be a stain on the show’s history, a mark of how unserious and ill-equipped for this era it is.

But this weekend, if Trump was watching, he was watching from a (presumably very cushy) bed at Walter Reed Medical Center, and it’s unlikely he was happy with what he saw. Baldwin’s impression of him is listless and annoying, especially next to Carrey’s kinetic Biden. He was the butt of a raft of jokes, some funnier than others, fired off by Colin Jost and Michael Che during Weekend Update. (“I wish him a very lengthy recovery,” Che said with a smirk.) And Chris Rock needled him throughout his monologue — “Like, Donald Trump left a game show to run for president because it was easier” — and concluded by essentially deeming him irrelevant. It’s been four very long seasons of SNL since Trump was elected and five since he last showed up in person on the show. By now, he’s not even a good punch line. —AW

Jury’s Still Out: Covid-19 precautions

How exactly do you make Saturday Night Live right now? Especially in New York City, where legal restrictions are so fierce that restaurants only opened indoor dining this week at 25 percent, movie theaters are still closed, and comedy clubs and indoor performance venues are not allowed to open?

In interviews, SNL executive producer Lorne Michaels has hinted at some it, although the show is obviously making things up on the fly. The audience for the premiere, made up of first responders, was notably smaller and masked (though seated in non-distanced clumps around the studio). The traditional between-sketch shots showed the crew in masks and face shields, scurrying around as usual to prepare sets but also disinfecting them. Plexiglass separated the band members from one another, allowing them to sit in their usual perch on the stage. More sketches were pre-recorded than usual; at one point, I wondered if the whole cast was even there, though they came out, wearing masks, at the end of the show. Even the opening credits — still shot all around New York City, as always — featured a number of the cast members sporting masks, clearly signaling to the audience that this is the new normal, and it’s okay, we’ll deal with it.

Was the whole thing ... legal? Presumably, the answer is yes, but I still wondered how SNL got around some restrictions. And more importantly: Was it safe? There’s no such thing as a risk-free activity these days, but you still have to wonder. Even masked in the studio audience, you’re still inside, with performers removing masks for sketches or for musical numbers. Yes, presumably the airflow has been checked and double-checked, and experts have been consulted, and people have been tested for Covid-19, and everyone’s just doing the best they can. Nobody wants an episode of SNL to become a super-spreader event.

But it seems impossible to say whether the precautions worked, for now. This season premiere was a good faith effort to make live entertainment feel as normal as possible, and that’s pretty much all you can ask from a show like Saturday Night Live. Still, I think I won’t be the only one crossing my fingers for everyone in that room for a few weeks. —AW



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‘Mueller’s pitbull’ has a few regrets


If you believe the headlines, Andrew Weissmann was special counsel Robert Mueller’s “pitbull,” his closest aide, the shadow power behind the two-year investigation of President Donald Trump and his campaign’s contacts with Russia.

But in Weissmann’s own telling, his reputation as an outsize force was overstated — fueled, the longtime federal prosecutor believes, by a secret anti-Mueller PR effort driven by Paul Manafort and Sean Hannity. And it’s belied by the sheer number of major prosecutorial decisions on which he ended up on the losing side.

Weissmann wanted to subpoena Trump. Mueller said no. Weissmann wanted to conclude forcefully that Trump obstructed justice. Mueller said no. And Weissmann wanted to open a wide-ranging investigation of Trump’s finances. He was again rebuffed. He recounts these disputes at length in his new book, “Where Law Ends: Inside the Mueller Investigation,” a tome he says he offered to supplement the historical record with an insider’s account of the weightiest Washington scandal in modern times.

In an interview with POLITICO, Weissmann said that last Sunday’s explosive New York Times report cataloguing decades of Trump’s financial dealings and tax returns was “serendipitous” — underscoring why he fought to probe Trump’s financial relationships where others refused.

“It's one thing to say we should've done it and it's another to see,” Weissmann said. “Because you rightly would've said, ‘Well, what would that have shown?’ And I would've said, ‘I don't know.’”

Now, Weissmann says, some of the blanks have been filled in. And though the reporting suggests that Russia played a minimal role in Trump’s finances over the years, Weissmann said it did raise new questions about one facet of the special counsel probe: Trump’s 2013 Miss Universe Pageant in Moscow.

“It seems like that pageant was unusually profitable and also the people who put up the money got no profit, but then civilian Trump made a couple million dollars,” Weissmann said — $2.3 million, according to the Times. “So I'd be curious about that.”

Weissmann was one of three team leaders in Mueller’s office. He oversaw “Team M,” the one charged with bringing to fruition multiple investigative threads about Manafort, Trump’s 2016 campaign chairman. Manafort’s ascension to Trump’s inner circle in April 2016 alarmed counterintelligence officials aware of his decades-long relationship with pro-Russian elements in Ukraine. And on that score, Weissmann’s wing of the probe was among the most successful, befitting his reputation as an aggressive, creative prosecutor: Manafort drew a lengthy prison term on bank and tax fraud charges, and details about his relationship with a suspected Russian agent were featured in Mueller’s report.

Weissmann’s book lands at an unusually sensitive moment in American history. A month before Trump’s reelection bid, the nation — indeed, the presidency itself — is gripped by the coronavirus pandemic, wracked in economic turmoil and dealing with a slew of realtime presidential scandals, not just the laundry list of ancient ones.

For months now, Trump and his allies have waged a brute-force effort to stamp out embers of the Mueller probe and its offshoots, which have long infuriated the president. Trump regularly suggests he should be allowed a third term in office to make up for time he lost battling the Russia probe. And Trump frequently vents on Twitter and at campaign rallies that those who perpetrated it should face prosecution.



The Justice Department has opened investigations on multiple fronts intended to raise sharp doubts about the conduct of the FBI investigators who launched the case against Trump, and those probes have gradually aired internal FBI and DOJ machinations that defenders of the Trump-Russia investigation say are designed selectively to discredit its damning findings.

One such effort played out over the past couple of weeks, as Weissmann batted back the notion that he and his team systematically erased their official phones before the investigation shut down. The charge was leveled after recently released documents, seized upon by Trump’s allies, suggested many of their phones were “wiped” around the time the investigation wound down.

Weissmann notes that his book chronicles just how desperate the team was to record all their actions in the event that Trump summarily fired them all, as he threatened to do from the outset of the probe.

“It was the antithesis,” Weissmann said of the phone “wiping” stories. “We were trying to think about how to prevent things from disappearing.”

“I was like, wait a second, everything was backed up,” he continued, adding, “This phone was irrelevant because everything was on our computers.”

Weissmann also said he was perplexed by the Justice Department’s recent handling of the prosecution of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to FBI interviewers about his contacts with Russia’s U.S. ambassador in late 2016, has since moved to rescind his plea and accused prosecutors and the FBI of trying to frame him. DOJ moved in May to drop the case, setting off an extraordinary chain of events — the presiding federal judge tapping an outside adviser who has bludgeoned the Justice Department for what he says is overt political favoritism for a Trump ally, and Flynn’s lawyers maneuvering to remove the judge from the case.

Amid the legal wrangling, DOJ released a lengthy interview summary with one of the FBI agents who worked with Mueller’s team on the Flynn case. In the summary, the agent William Barnett assails the entire investigation, saying it had broadly developed a “get Trump” attitude and taking personal shots at Weissmann and fellow Mueller deputy Jeannie Rhee.

Weissmann said he had a general awareness of who Barnett was but “never dealt with him” because Barnett was not assigned to his team. The top FBI agent and analyst assigned to the Manafort unit, Weissmann said, “got along really well.”

“I read that and I was trying to understand,” Weissmann said of Barnett’s complaints. “I just couldn't make any sense of it because he seemed supportive of the [Flynn] prosecution but just generally negative about the office.”

Weissmann also wondered about the timing, noting that Barnett interviewed with internal DOJ investigators in recent weeks, and his interview summary was made public just days later.

“It was certainly odd for that to be submitted in court so quickly,” he said. “But I'm not part of that litigation and I don't know all of the ins and outs — I haven't heard the government's reasoning and maybe there is a rationale for it.”

But Weissmann has also taken solace in other recent developments. For example, he hailed the Senate Intelligence Committee’s new, bipartisan report on the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia as an even more forceful validation of the investigation that has loomed over the Trump presidency for three years.

In that report, senators agreed that one of Manafort’s closest associates, Konstantin Kilimnik, was a full fledged Russian agent. Not even Mueller’s report had leaned into its description of Kilimnik that forcefully, instead simply assessing that he had “ties” to Russian intelligence. And the Senate panel also affirmed Mueller’s findings that Manafort had shared campaign polling data and battleground state information with Kilimnik.

Weissmann said he’s not sure why the Senate was able to go further than Mueller’s team in describing Kilimnik but said Mueller’s assessment was limited to the FBI’s information.

“Whether they have additional data or whether they were looking at material we had … and making their own judgment about it, I don't know the answer to that,” Weissmann said.

But he said the Senate’s report vindicated the Mueller team’s findings on Manafort and Kilimnik. “It was useful to have a bipartisan report that was that detailed, that you would hope would undercut conspiracy theories and people who are less tethered to facts,” he added.

In the interview, Weissmann wistfully recalled the gallows humor of the office — where he and Rhee would playfully banter about which of them was “Angry Democrat #1” and which was “Angry Democrat #2.” He said he tuned out the daily TV narratives about the probe, for his own mental health and also to ensure he kept focused on the work, and the grinding pace that Mueller demanded.

But he also joked that he’s become an “ersatz academic” — he teaches a course at New York University — and likes to think through some of the lessons learned that the country can apply to future special counsel investigations, should they become necessary.

For one thing, he says, the regulations should be updated to require a report to Congress and a certain degree of transparency that is not mandatory under the current rules. That would end any drama about whether Justice Department leaders might bottle up explosive evidence and findings that are meant to be publicly disclosed. The probes also should be required to issue firm conclusions, avoiding the mealy-mouthed results of the Mueller probe that laid out evidence Trump obstructed justice multiple times, but stopped short of saying so explicitly. The public should be informed along the way about the rationale behind key investigative steps — those taken and those skipped.

“Where I see the biggest issue is the public education function of a special counsel,” Weissmann said. “Archibald Cox” — the Watergate special prosecutor — “articulated why he went to the Supreme Court and why it was necessary to get the tapes. And I think that is something, especially in this day and age, it's really useful to have it out there.”

Weissmann also says the public should be informed along the way about the rationale behind key investigative steps — those taken and those skipped.

“We should have been very clear about what we did not do,” he lamented. “It’s very hard for me to defend that.”

Weissmann also said he is intrigued by proposals from Capitol Hill Democrats to impose limited checks on presidential pardon power. In his book, he describes the unanticipated complications caused by Trump's overt pardon-dangling for witnesses who refused to "break" and cooperate with Mueller's team.

"There was no subtext, only text," Weissman wrote of the president's overtures, noting that Trump routinely reminded several of Mueller's key targets — from Manafort to Flynn to longtime Trump confidant Roger Stone — that he had warm feelings toward them and viewed others, like his former attorney Michael Cohen, as a traitor for flipping and testifying.

Though the pardon power is enshrined in the Constitution, Democrats have proposed requiring the Justice Department to turn over records in any case for which a pardoned defendant is an associate of the president. They also want to criminalize pardons issued as part of a corrupt quid pro quo arrangement.

“Congress could at least weigh in on what they think would constitute an obstructive use of that power,” Weissmann said. “The pardon power's so interesting because it can be used in such wonderful ways to alleviate harms that people see later on, but it also can be clearly abused.”

With several former Trump administration officials complaining that the prepublication review process was used to censor or silence them, Weissmann says he approached the Justice Department’s review of his book with some trepidation, but ultimately offered no complaints — beyond some grumbling about the delay.

“I can’t tell you what was taken out,” Weissmann said with a laugh. “I was really confident that nothing I was doing was going to have classified information. I was concerned about whether this would go through an apolitical process at the department. ... It obviously took longer than it should have. It took about five months to get through prepublication review.”

“That’s the negative: that it was too long. But, I have to say, I thought I was dealt with fairly,” Weissmann added.

Weissmann also rejected the notion that his post-special counsel foray into Democratic politics — he briefly prepared to headline a fundraising event for Joe Biden before pulling back — and his affiliation with left-leaning MSNBC would somehow vindicate Trump’s allegations of bias against him during the Mueller probe.

“When I was in the department, I took an oath of office and I adhered to that, I didn't think about things other than pursuing the facts or applying the law,” said Weissmann, who spent 23 years in various roles at the Justice Department and FBI. “The fact of someone being a Democrat or a Republican was just so irrelevant to just anything you would think about.”

“Now I'm a private citizen and I'm planning on taking my responsibilities as a citizen just as seriously as I took my responsibilities as [a prosecutor],” he continued. “I'm entitled to speak and vote as I please.”



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Trump campaign looks to small victories on trade to win the farmer vote


President Donald Trump has notched few big wins on trade, but he has scored some incremental victories that help key swing-state constituencies — from Maine lobstermen to Wisconsin dairy farmers and Florida produce growers. And with the election just a month away, administration officials are making sure to tout those efforts.

Trump has reminded voters at campaign rallies, in tweets and through television ads that trade has been a centerpiece of his administration. While many of the trade wins Trump has touted aren’t new, former administration officials and trade experts say it could help him garner support from voters in the key states he needs for reelection.

“We’ve been trying to do this stuff for years. We got it done and in the time of an election when you know what the swing states are, you brag about whatever the heck you can,” said Clete Willems, former deputy director of the National Economic Council in the Trump administration.

“It’s time to try to cash [the wins] in and get credit for it,” Willems said.

Trump’s trade agenda has long included nuggets that would help key constituencies in swing states and with the election just a month away, administration officials are making sure to sell it among those he hopes will tip the electoral scale in his favor.

Chief among those small wins are: opening Canada’s dairy market more for farmers — many of whom are concentrated in states like Wisconsin that he hopes to win again, launching trade investigations to please seasonal produce farmers in must-win Florida and opening the European market for lobstermen in Maine — a deal repeatedly praised last month during the Republican National Convention.



“A lot of these are activities that people have been pushing in the past or for a long time are now being touted in the context of the election,” Willems said.

The U.S. has been involved in lobster negotiations with Europe since 2018 when former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker met with Trump at the White House and agreed to start trade negotiations. Those talks have been largely stalled and unproductive, but the recent lobster deal struck in July came just in time to help Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who is struggling in her own reelection campaign and has publicly disagreed with Trump in the past.

The Trump campaign did not hold back in promoting the lobster achievement, though it was a long time coming. Jason Joyce, a Maine lobsterman, highlighted the European Union's Agreement to drop its 8 percent tariff on U.S. lobsters and Trump’s move to reopen the Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument to commercial fishing during his speech at the RNC. He noted Obama’s original executive order that blocked fishermen from the area, a move he said was done to cater to environmental activists.

After the EU lobster deal was announced in August, Trump tweeted: "Beautiful Maine Lobsters will now move tariff-free to Europe! ... I am proud to help the great people of Maine!"

Meanwhile, Trump and administration officials have gotten to highlight the biggest changes from NAFTA in his new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The deal only went into effect in July, so companies and workers have yet to unlock most of the deal’s limited benefits. But one of the biggest changes was expanding market access for U.S. dairy in Canada, an issue that dates back to the original NAFTA deal going into effect in 1995.

Still, Vice President Mike Pence touted how USMCA is expected to increase dairy exports by more than $3 million during his campaign stop in La Crosse, Wis.

“You deserve to know that Sen. [Kamala] Harris put their radical environmental agenda ahead of Wisconsin dairy and ahead of Wisconsin power,” he said at the Dairyland Power Cooperative, referring to the Democratic vice presidential candidate’s decision to vote against the USMCA for not including strong enough environmental provisions.

“But with President Trump we will always put Wisconsin farmers, businesses and families first,” Pence added.



Other nuggets for swing states include the recent announcement from USTR and the Agriculture and Commerce departments to take specific actions in investigating the impact of seasonal produce imports on domestic growers — a move aimed at pleasing Florida and Georgia growers.

It comes after U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer promised to help tackle what seasonal growers say is unfair competition from Mexico on produce, including blueberries, bell peppers and strawberries. The reality is the move is shallow as it will likely not deliver a win for growers before the election, but pitches Trump as responsive to their long-standing concerns.

Former administration officials and trade experts say it’s clearly a good strategy to showcase the small wins — even if he’s failed to deliver on some of his bigger promises, including a full-on Japan deal, phase two China deal or breakthrough with the European Union or India.

“The advantage of incumbency is you can do things and take action and enact your policies that have positive political impact for you,” said Tim Keeler, a former USTR and Treasury Department official. “It can’t hurt him.”

However, USMCA is the end of the road for large agreements in the president's first term. Trump landed a phase one deal with China earlier this year, but given heightened tensions with Beijing over the pandemic and China falling behind on its promised purchases, it has not been touted on the campaign trail. One bright spot is ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and United Kingdom, but both sides are still a long way from striking a final deal — and it would also have to be passed by Congress, which took over a year for lawmakers to do in the case of USMCA.

“I’m not seeing a lot of victories,” said Bill Reinsch, a trade policy specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “He’s raised some important issues but he’s broken an enormous amount on the way. He has very little to show for it other than USMCA.”

Trump’s trade victories “all ended up being tiny, certainly tiny in comparison to what he promised and tiny in real terms,” Reinsch said.



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Why Black Athletes’ Political Activism Matters


The night after a grand jury decided not to charge Louisville police officers with the killing of Breonna Taylor, Los Angeles Laker LeBron James, coming off a playoff victory, used the postgame interview to express his emotions about the news: “We lost a beautiful woman in Breonna that has no say in what’s going on right now. We want justice no matter how long it takes.”

What is remarkable about comments like these is how commonplace they are becoming. There is a long tradition of Black athletes engaging in activism. But we have seldom seen so much attention be paid to their political statements and actions—including the recent NBA strike in response to the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, which spread to the WNBA, MLS, MLB and professional tennis. The activism of today’s Black athletes goes beyond speaking out against police violence: James, for instance, also recently formed a group aimed at protecting African Americans’ voting rights and encouraging people to vote this fall.

Some observers have wondered what effect, if any, this activism has—whether it is just virtue signaling or whether it really matters in American politics. In particular, could athletes’ kneeling, marching, boycotts, fashion statements or tweets make a difference in the way that their fans actually participate in politics in an election year?

Our research on the political behaviors of Black voters suggest the answer just might be yes. A majority of respondents in a survey we conducted reported that athlete-activist Colin Kaepernick had inspired them to vote. We also recently found that, among Black voters who sat out the last two national elections, athletes like Kaepernick and James enjoyed significantly higher approval than the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden. Black celebrity athlete-activists engaged in political action, in other words, might just be able to influence the voters Biden needs to win.


Four years ago, African American voter turnout fell for the first time in decades, and Donald Trump was able to wrestle away battleground states Barack Obama had won in both 2008 and 2012. In this election cycle, reporting suggests Biden can win states with relatively large Black populations, such as North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania, if African American turnout reaches 2012 levels. States with large urban centers, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump won by fewer than 20,000 total votes, are also in play.

A number of theories have been put forward about the best approach to mobilize Black voters in 2020, especially those voters who failed to make it to the polls in 2016 and 2018. Public opinion data make clear that appeals to racial progress resonate; research also shows Black people are motivated to participate in politics by the racial threat they believe Trump represents. Other scholarship contends that inspiring different emotional responses, such as hope and enthusiasm, is the best way to motivate Black political activity. Our survey data suggest there is another possible way: the revolt of the Black athlete.


In 2017, we launched the Black Voter Project, a series of public opinion polls examining African American political behavior and attitudes. That year, we examined the relationship between NFL player-turned-activist Kaepernick’s kneeling in protest during the Nation Anthem and African American political mobilization. After controlling for many other factors such as political interest and past voter participation, we found that Black voters who strongly approved of Kaepernick’s protest were significantly more likely to have signed a petition, boycotted, demonstrated, attended political meetings or contacted representatives.

This year, we did a follow-up survey consisting of a nationally representative sample of 1,332 new respondents whom we polled from the end of June through the end of July. This time, we asked respondents directly whether Kaepernick’s protest action had ever inspired them to participate in politics in various ways—donating, boycotting, protesting or commenting on social media. In each of those categories, close to a third of all respondents said yes. What’s more, a majority of respondents said Kaepernick’s activism had inspired them to vote in a local, state or national election.

Among the voters we polled, approval for Kaepernick’s protest during the National Anthem was high: close to 70 percent of all respondents. When we looked specifically at respondents who did not vote in 2016, 2018 or both, approval for Kaepernick’s protest remained high: close to 60 percent. These findings suggest that Kaepernick’s activism has influenced both active voters and those who have withdrawn from electoral politics in the past four years.



Considering this, we wondered how support for Black athletes compared with that for Democratic politicians. In the same survey, we asked respondents to rate various individuals on a feeling thermometer scale from 0-100, where 0 is very cold and 100 is very warm. Feeling thermometer scales are useful when trying to determine the preference and order of respondents’ attitudes. For ease of interpretation, we grouped respondents’ attitudes in three categories: cold attitudes (less than 50 on the scale), warm attitudes (between 51 and 75) and very warm attitudes (greater than 75).

When asked to rate Joe Biden, a majority of all respondents expressed very warm attitudes. However, of those who had not voted in 2016 or 2018, only about one-third expressed very warm attitudes; in fact, a plurality of nonvoters held cold attitudes toward Biden. While we are unable to draw a direct comparison to Kaepernick’s approval rating (which was not measured on a feeling thermometer scale), these findings suggest Kaepernick likely connects with segments of the Black community that Biden does not.

We did, however, ask respondents to rate LeBron James on the same feeling thermometer scale. And we found that, similar to attitudes toward Kaepernick’s activism, a majority of Black people expressed support for James regardless of their recent voting behavior.

Perhaps it is not surprising that less politically engaged voters would be more drawn to a celebrity than a politician. But that’s exactly our point: With support for both Kaepernick and James extending beyond those who are likely voters—unlike support for Biden—we conclude that Black celebrity athletes’ political activism has the potential to connect with voters that politicians such as Biden might not be reaching.


Of course, we cannot definitively say that Kaepernick or James will have a measurable effect on the Black vote this fall. But it is not unthinkable. One study estimated that Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential primary yielded him an additional 1 million voters.

The notion that athletes and celebrities can influence politics is sometimes met with derision. What could a wealthy VIP possibly contribute to the public from such a privileged position in society? This scorn often has been directed at Black sports stars who spotlight racial injustice. Surely, the argument goes, these professional athletes do not encounter the problems about which they complain. But because Black athlete-activists have such massive, captive audiences, they can—and, some would argue, should—use their celebrity platforms to voice the concerns of Black people.

If Biden and the Democrats are truly interested in building enthusiasm and inspiring Black voters to go to the polls in November, they would be wise to embrace Black athletes, such as Kaepernick and James, who are choosing to exercise their political voices.



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